Facing the hard times

The financial crisis is forcing carriers around the globe to adjust their fleet expansion plans and cancel aircraft orders. Russian lessor Ilyushin Finance Co. (IFC) lost two clients even before the recession struck, but talking with the Russia & CIS Observer IFC General Director Alexander Rubtsov is convinced his customer base will soon grow back.

— How has the aircraft leasing market changed over the past year?
Lessors are now in a very difficult situation. Passenger and freight traffic [in Russia] has declined by some 25-30%, driving down airline profitability and the need for additional throughput capacity. Also, [one of IFC clients] KrasAir Airlines ceased to exist last year and Aeroflot-Cargo cancelled its order for [three] Ilyushin Il-96-400s. We were forced to repaint the aircraft and hand them over to Polet Airlines.
What makes the situation worse for lessors is the unavailability of ‘long money’. Long-term bank loans have all but disappeared from the domestic leasing market since last September. We hope to get several such loans from large Russian banks in the near future, but it’s easier said than done. A number of banking institutions have found themselves in a tight spot following the bankruptcy of KrasAir, so they are now much stricter in their lending requirements. The difficult financial situation at [another Russian aerospace lessor] Finance Leasing Company has also played a part in discrediting leasing companies in the eyes of banks. It sometimes takes us up to six months to get a loan.
IFC currently needs to refinance the short-term construction loans for several aircraft. Specifically, we have to get long-term loans for five Tupolev Tu-204 airliners delivered to Red Wings and three Il-96-400s delivered to Polet. We also have to secure funding for the Antonov An-148 production program. We hope this problem will be solved by the end of the summer.
— What are IFC’s planned deliveries for next year?
There are currently five Tu-204SM aircraft under construction for an Iranian carrier. Early next year we are to deliver one Tu-204-100 to North Korea. There are plans to deliver Tu-204 and An-148 airliners to the Russian presidential air detachment. Apart from that, we hope to lease out a couple of aircraft to a potential new customer in the Middle East.
— At MAKS 2009 air show you displayed the An-148 regional jet in Rossiya Airlines livery. Do you believe this aircraft to be a rival of another Russian regional program — the Sukhoi Superjet 100?
As for the Superjet 100, I do not think it is a rival to the An-148 because [in terms of seating capacity] the An-148 ends where the Superjet 100 starts. Rather, they complement each other, and not only where capacity is concerned but also in terms of operational performance. The An-148 is specially designed to operate from unimproved airfields. We are working to turn it into an all-weather airliner capable of both IFR and VFR landings in poor visibility. Category IIIA landing trials are underway and we expect to end up with a truly all-weather airliner. For this, we will need an infrared synthetic vision system.
— How many An-148 orders do you have at the moment?
Rossiya has six on order and an option for another six. I hope that the first three of the firm deliveries will be made this year, followed by three more during 2010. At MAKS Atlant-Soyuz Airlines firmed up a purchase 30 An-148s. Polet and Moskovia Airlines are each planning to buy 10 An-148s. Saratov airlines and Vladivostok Air is also in the list. Equador’s Icaro airline signed a MoU for 2 aircraft. In the next 15 years we expect to sell 350-400 of the type and 50% of all sales may be to foreign customers.
— What is your outlook on the production volume and the ratio of domestic and foreign sales for the Tu-204SM model?
I think that by the time the [new Russian] MS-21 airliner is available, 100 to 120 aircraft of this type will have been built. The Tu-204SM will be available until 2018-2020. We expect to sell 40 to 50 examples in Russia and 70-80 in Latin America, the Middle East, South-East Asia, and Africa.